Search "Windows 12 release date" and you'll find a dozen different answers. This guide ranks every major release date claim by source credibility.
Tier 1: High-Credibility Sources
OEM certification pipeline leaks (Q3-Q4 2025): Partner sources indicate hardware certification testing for a major Windows release began in Q1 2025, lining up with a Q4 2025 launch window.
Insider build cadence analysis: Canary channel build numbers (26xxx range) began showing new feature flags in early 2025, historically preceding public preview by 9-12 months.
Tier 2: Plausible but Unconfirmed
"Holiday 2025" social claims: Aligns with Tier 1 evidence but lacks independent verification.
Tier 3: Low Credibility
"Windows 12 in 2024" claims: Already proven wrong, likely based on misreading Copilot+ PC marketing as an OS launch signal.
Our Synthesis
Our best estimate remains October-November 2025 for General Availability, with Insider Preview opening Q3 2025. We update this article as new credible information surfaces.